Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.391171 0.453356 0.520757 0.599054 0.687310 0.783516 0.896119
2025-05-18 0.291570 0.370016 0.461627 0.575831 0.713644 0.873797 1.073158
2025-05-25 0.215959 0.299650 0.404728 0.544804 0.724893 0.946741 1.238543
2025-06-01 0.168933 0.255944 0.373156 0.539705 0.766868 1.062047 1.470050
2025-06-08 0.131094 0.217251 0.341832 0.530349 0.802599 1.174766 1.713631
2025-06-15 0.108563 0.196121 0.331524 0.548770 0.879316 1.352236 2.065733
2025-06-22 0.081830 0.162540 0.296789 0.526010 0.894311 1.446512 2.315104
2025-06-29 0.063163 0.137952 0.271605 0.513941 0.923959 1.566173 2.615938
2025-07-06 0.048237 0.116200 0.246843 0.498337 0.945932 1.677201 2.917140
2025-07-13 0.040011 0.105434 0.239742 0.512356 1.019383 1.878301 3.380710
2025-07-20 0.031903 0.092491 0.225742 0.511361 1.066817 2.042494 3.802553
2025-07-27 0.026383 0.083815 0.218598 0.522462 1.137963 2.255024 4.326374
2025-08-03 0.021293 0.074764 0.209327 0.529332 1.205625 2.475030 4.895941
2025-08-10 0.015719 0.062041 0.188339 0.507286 1.213793 2.589662 5.294744
2025-08-17 0.011238 0.050352 0.166457 0.478557 1.203926 2.669996 5.641420
2025-08-24 0.008648 0.043556 0.155432 0.473239 1.243422 2.850602 6.193522
2025-08-31 0.006546 0.037290 0.143931 0.464271 1.273651 3.016669 6.735118
2025-09-07 0.005444 0.034459 0.141983 0.480173 1.364066 3.316339 7.566167
2025-09-14 0.003914 0.028515 0.127904 0.459481 1.363993 3.426122 8.029170
2025-09-21 0.002905 0.024275 0.118008 0.448406 1.385909 3.585792 8.608884
2025-09-28 0.002111 0.020430 0.107947 0.434268 1.397654 3.724181 9.156847
2025-10-05 0.001734 0.018859 0.106278 0.446490 1.481313 4.034512 10.096331
2025-10-12 0.001335 0.016647 0.100977 0.445418 1.528580 4.265221 10.882419